Archive for S@R
We develop models for simulating economic and financial decisions under uncertainty. Taking advantage of recognized financial and economic theory, we customize simulation models to fit specific industries and needs. Our business idea is to provide decisions support which enables better economic decisions.
Stochastic Balance Simulation
We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition deterministic models will miss the important dimension of uncertainty – that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they produce.
2010 © | S@R | 0 comments | ContinuedThe Uncertainty in Forecasting Airport Pax
The uncertainty about the future yearly Pax is quite high. With this as the backcloth for airport planning the stochastic nature of Pax forecasts has to be taken into account when investment decisions are to be made.
2010 © | S@R | 0 comments | ContinuedThe Case of Enterprise Risk Management
Traditionally, when estimating costs, project value, equity value or budgeting, one number is generated – a single point estimate.
2010 © | S@R | 0 comments | ContinuedA short presentation of S@R
Most companies have some sort of model describing the company’s operations – but…
2010 © | S@R | 1 comment | Continued
The Value of Information
Enterprise risk management only has value to those who know that the future is uncertain
2010 © | S@R | 0 comments | ContinuedWACC, Uncertainty and Infrastructure Regulation
Calculating Wacc for a company for a number of years into the future is not a trivial task. Wacc is no longer a single value, but a time series with values varying from year to year.
2010 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Credit Risk
A number of other statistical methods have also been used to predict future company failure and credit risk.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | ContinuedConcession Revenue Modelling and Forecasting
Concessions are an important source of revenue for all airports. An airport simulation model should therefore be able to give a good forecast of revenue from different types of concessions.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Perception of Risk
Is there less interest in risk and strategy in the Vest than in the East ?
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Where do you go from risk mapping?
You can’t control what you can’t measure
2009 © | S@R | 3 comments | Continued
Public Works Projects
The solution to all this is to establish a proper simulation model for every large project and do the Monte Carlo simulation necessary to establish the total cost distribution, and then calculate the risks involved.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Selecting Strategy
When there is no uncertainty the maximum return criterion can be used to rank strategies. With uncertainty we have to look for the strategy that maximizes the firms expected utility.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
