FRM

M&A: When two plus two is five or three or …

Read More →

Corn and ethanol futures hedge ratios

Corn and ethanol futures hedge ratios

This entry is part 2 of 2 in the series The Bio-ethanol crush margin

We are here looking for hedge models and hedge ratio estimations techniques that are “good enough” and that can fit into valuation models using Monte Carlo simulation. The model have to be dynamic in the sense that as new data (contracts) becomes available it can read the data, perform the necessary statistical analysis, produce the hedging coefficients and do the simulations – in one go.

Read More →

Read More →

The probability distribution of the bioethanol crush margin

The probability distribution of the bioethanol crush margin

This entry is part 1 of 2 in the series The Bio-ethanol crush margin

In the following we will illustrate some of the risks the bioethanol producer is facing using corn as feedstock. However, these risks will persist regardless of the feedstock and production process chosen.

Read More →

Read More →

The tool that would improve everybody’s toolkit

The tool that would improve everybody’s toolkit

Edge, which every year invites scientists, philosophers, writers, thinkers and artists to opine on a major question of the moment, asked this year: “What scientific concept would improve everybody’s cognitive toolkit?”

Read More →

Read More →

Plans based on average assumptions ……

Plans based on average assumptions ……

This entry is part 3 of 4 in the series The fallacies of scenario analysis

Don’t worry about the average, worry about how large the variations are, how frequent they occur and why they exists.

Read More →

Read More →

Planning under Uncertainty

Planning under Uncertainty

This entry is part 3 of 6 in the series Balance simulation

Let’s say that the board have sketched a future desired value of the company’s equit, and that you are left to find out if it is possible to get there and if so – the road to take …

Read More →

Read More →

Top