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The Estimated Project Cost Distributions and the Final Project Cost

The Estimated Project Cost Distributions and the Final Project Cost

This entry is part 2 of 2 in the series The Norwegian Governmental Project Risk Assessment Scheme

The growing use of Cost Risk Assessment models in public projects has raised some public concerns about its costs and the models ability to reduce cost overruns and correctly predict the projects final cost. We have in this article shown that the models are neither reliable nor valid, by calculating the probabilities of the projects final costs.

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The implementation of the Norwegian Governmental Project Risk Assessment scheme

The implementation of the Norwegian Governmental Project Risk Assessment scheme

This entry is part 1 of 2 in the series The Norwegian Governmental Project Risk Assessment Scheme

Based on these findings it is pertinent to ask what went wrong in the implementation of QA2. The idea is sound, but the result is somewhat disappointing.

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Project Management under Uncertainty

Project Management under Uncertainty

The objectives of the project scheduling are to determine the earliest start and finish of each task in the project.

The aim is to be able to complete the project as early as possible and to calculate the likelihood that the project will be completed within a certain time frame.

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The role of events in simulation modeling

The role of events in simulation modeling

This entry is part 2 of 2 in the series Handling Events

The need for assessing the impact of events with binary outcomes, like loan defaults, occurrence of recessions, etc. arises often in economics and other areas of decision making.

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Risk Appetite and the Virtues of the Board

Risk Appetite and the Virtues of the Board

This entry is part 1 of 1 in the series Risk Appetite and the Virtues of the Board

Multiple sources of risk are a fact of life. Only rarely will decisions concerning various risks be neatly separable. Intuitively, even when risks are statistically independent, bearing one risk should make an agent less willing to bear another.

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Distinguish between events and estimates

Distinguish between events and estimates

This entry is part 1 of 2 in the series Handling Events

Large public sector investment projects in Norway have to go through an established methodology for quality assurance.

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