Uncertainty
The risk of planes crashing due to volcanic ash
When the Icelandic volcano Eyafjallajøkul had a large eruption in 2010 it lead to closed airspace all over Europe, with corresponding big losses for airlines.
Inventory management – Some effects of risk pooling
We have thus shown through Monte-Carlo simulations, that the benefits of pooling will increase with the number of locations and that the benefits of risk pooling can be calculated without knowing the closed form of the demand distribution.
The tool that would improve everybody’s toolkit
Edge, which every year invites scientists, philosophers, writers, thinkers and artists to opine on a major question of the moment, asked this year: “What scientific concept would improve everybody’s cognitive toolkit?”
Plans based on average assumptions ……
Don’t worry about the average, worry about how large the variations are, how frequent they occur and why they exists.