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Perception of Risk

Perception of Risk

Google Trends and Google Insights for Search gives us the opportunity to gain information on a subject’s popularity. A paper by Google Inc. and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (USA) have shown how search queries can be used to estimate the current level of influenza activity in the United States. (Ginsberg, Mohebbi, Patel, Brammer, […]

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Where do you go from risk mapping?

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Public Works Projects

Public Works Projects

This entry is part 2 of 4 in the series The fallacies of scenario analysis

In public works and large scale construction or engineering projects – where uncertainty mostly concerns cost, a simplified scenario analysis is often used …

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Selecting Strategy

Selecting Strategy

This entry is part 2 of 2 in the series Valuation

When there is no uncertainty the maximum return criterion can be used to rank strategies. With uncertainty we have to look for the strategy that maximizes the firms expected utility.

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Two letters

Two letters

Dear S@R, I am not interested in the use of stochastic models, and particularly Monte Carlo simulations. I believe that these approaches too often lead to underestimating risks of extreme events …

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The fallacies of Scenario analysis

The fallacies of Scenario analysis

This entry is part 1 of 4 in the series The fallacies of scenario analysis

Scenario analysis is often used in company valuation – with high, low and most likely scenarios to estimate the value range and expected value – but do they give correct answers?

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