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Plans based on average assumptions ……

Plans based on average assumptions ……

This entry is part 3 of 4 in the series The fallacies of scenario analysis

Don’t worry about the average, worry about how large the variations are, how frequent they occur and why they exists.

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Planning under Uncertainty

Planning under Uncertainty

This entry is part 3 of 6 in the series Balance simulation

Let’s say that the board have sketched a future desired value of the company’s equit, and that you are left to find out if it is possible to get there and if so – the road to take …

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Working Capital and the Balance Sheet

Working Capital and the Balance Sheet

This entry is part 2 of 3 in the series Working Capital

The conservation-of-value principle says that it doesn’t matter how you slice the financial pie, only improving cash flows will create value …

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Uncertainty modeling

Uncertainty modeling

This entry is part 2 of 3 in the series What We Do

We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.

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Working Capital Strategy

Working Capital Strategy

This entry is part 1 of 3 in the series Working Capital

The annual “REL/CFO Working Capital Survey” made its debut in 1997. The magazine identifies working capital management as one of the key issues facing financial executives in the 21st century …

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Solving Uncertainty in Simulation Models

Solving Uncertainty in Simulation Models

In our world ‘the best possible analysis’ means that we have a model ‘good enough’ to describe the business under study. The question then is – do we need to take into account the uncertainties that always will be inherent in its operations and markets? And if we have to, is it possible?

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