Forecasting sales and forecasting uncertainty
There are a large number of methods used for forecasting ranging from judgmental thru expert systems and time series to causal methods.
“How can you be better than us understand our business risk?”
This is a question we often hear and the simple answer is that we don’t! But by using our methods and models we can use your knowledge in such a way that it can be systematically measured and accumulated throughout the business and be presented in easy to understand graphs to the management and board. […]
Be prepared for a bumpy ride
Imagine you’re nicely settled down in your airline seat on a transatlantic flight – comfort-able, with a great feeling. Then the captain comes on and welcomes everybody on board and continues, “It’s the first time I fly this type of machine, so wish me luck!” Still feeling great?1 Running a company in today’s interconnected and […]
M&A: When two plus two is five or three or …
Mergers & Acquisitions is a way for companies to expand rapidly and much faster than organic growth …
Introduction to Simulation Models
Simulation models sets out to mimic real life company operations.
Corn and ethanol futures hedge ratios
We are here looking for hedge models and hedge ratio estimations techniques that are “good enough” and that can fit into valuation models using Monte Carlo simulation. The model have to be dynamic in the sense that as new data (contracts) becomes available it can read the data, perform the necessary statistical analysis, produce the hedging coefficients and do the simulations – in one go.