Corporate risk analysis

Forecasting sales and forecasting uncertainty

Forecasting sales and forecasting uncertainty

This entry is part 1 of 4 in the series Predictive Analytics

There are a large number of methods used for forecasting ranging from judgmental thru expert systems and time series to causal methods.

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“How can you be better than us understand our business risk?”

“How can you be better than us understand our business risk?”

This is a question we often hear and the simple answer is that we don’t! But by using our methods and models we can use your knowledge in such a way that it can be systematically measured and accumulated throughout the business and be presented in easy to understand graphs to the management and board. […]

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Be prepared for a bumpy ride

Be prepared for a bumpy ride

Imagine you’re nicely settled down in your airline seat on a transatlantic flight – comfort-able, with a great feeling. Then the captain comes on and welcomes everybody on board and continues, “It’s the first time I fly this type of machine, so wish me luck!” Still feeling great?1 Running a company in today’s interconnected and […]

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You only live once

You only live once

This entry is part 4 of 4 in the series The fallacies of scenario analysis

Let’s say that you are considering new investment opportunities for your company and that the sales department has guesstimated that the market for one of your products will most likely grow by ….

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The probability distribution of the bioethanol crush margin

The probability distribution of the bioethanol crush margin

This entry is part 1 of 2 in the series The Bio-ethanol crush margin

In the following we will illustrate some of the risks the bioethanol producer is facing using corn as feedstock. However, these risks will persist regardless of the feedstock and production process chosen.

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Plans based on average assumptions ……

Plans based on average assumptions ……

This entry is part 3 of 4 in the series The fallacies of scenario analysis

Don’t worry about the average, worry about how large the variations are, how frequent they occur and why they exists.

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