Category: Uncertainty
You only live once
It can be shown that the ensemble average always will overestimate the growth and thus can falsely lead to wrong conclusions.
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The probability distribution of the bioethanol crush margin
In the following we will illustrate some of the risks the bioethanol producer is facing using corn as feedstock. However, these risks will persist regardless of the feedstock and production process chosen.
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Moddeling World 2011
S&R participated as a keynote speaker at the Modelling World conference held in London June 16. The theme was forecasting and decision making inn an uncertain world
The tool that would improve everybody’s toolkit
Edge, which every year invites scientists, philosophers, writers, thinkers and artists to opine on a major question of the moment …
Plans based on average assumptions ……
Don’t worry about the average, worry about how large the variations are, how frequent they occur and why they exists.
Planning under Uncertainty
Let’s say that the board have sketched a future desired state (value of equity) of the company and that you are left to find if it is possible to get there and if so – the road to take.
Uncertainty modeling
We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.
Working Capital Strategy
Net working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. It can be both positive and negative depending on the firm’s strategic position in the market.
