In the following we will illustrate some of the risks the bioethanol producer is facing using corn as feedstock. However, these risks will persist regardless of the feedstock and production process chosen.
S&R participated as a keynote speaker at the Modelling World conference held in London June 16. The theme was forecasting and decision making inn an uncertain world
Edge, which every year invites scientists, philosophers, writers, thinkers and artists to opine on a major question of the moment, asked this year: “What scientific concept would improve everybody’s cognitive toolkit?”
Don’t worry about the average, worry about how large the variations are, how frequent they occur and why they exists.
Let’s say that the board have sketched a future desired value of the company’s equit, and that you are left to find out if it is possible to get there and if so – the road to take …
We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.