M&A: When two plus two is five or three or …
Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) is a way for companies to expand rapidly and much faster than organic growth would have allowed.
View Post
Introduction to Simulation Models
Simulation models sets out to mimic real life company operations.
View Post
The corn and ethanol futures hedge ratios
We are here looking for hedge models and hedge ratio estimations techniques that are “good enough” and that can fit into valuation models using Monte Carlo simulation. The model have to be dynamic in the sense that as new data (contracts) becomes available it can read the data, perform the necessary statistical analysis, produce the hedging coefficients and do the simulations – in one go.
You only live once
It can be shown that the ensemble average always will overestimate the growth and thus can falsely lead to wrong conclusions.
The probability distribution of the bioethanol crush margin
In the following we will illustrate some of the risks the bioethanol producer is facing using corn as feedstock. However, these risks will persist regardless of the feedstock and production process chosen.
Moddeling World 2011
S&R participated as a keynote speaker at the Modelling World conference held in London June 16. The theme was forecasting and decision making inn an uncertain world
The tool that would improve everybody’s toolkit
Edge, which every year invites scientists, philosophers, writers, thinkers and artists to opine on a major question of the moment …
Plans based on average assumptions ……
Don’t worry about the average, worry about how large the variations are, how frequent they occur and why they exists.
