You only live once
Let’s say that you are considering new investment opportunities for your company and that the sales department has guesstimated that the market for one of your products will most likely grow by ….
Decision making
The probability distribution of the bioethanol crush margin
In the following we will illustrate some of the risks the bioethanol producer is facing using corn as feedstock. However, these risks will persist regardless of the feedstock and production process chosen.
The tool that would improve everybody’s toolkit
Edge, which every year invites scientists, philosophers, writers, thinkers and artists to opine on a major question of the moment, asked this year: “What scientific concept would improve everybody’s cognitive toolkit?”
Planning under Uncertainty
Let’s say that the board have sketched a future desired value of the company’s equit, and that you are left to find out if it is possible to get there and if so – the road to take …
Uncertainty modeling
We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.
Solving Uncertainty in Simulation Models
In our world ‘the best possible analysis’ means that we have a model ‘good enough’ to describe the business under study. The question then is – do we need to take into account the uncertainties that always will be inherent in its operations and markets? And if we have to, is it possible?