S@R

S@R develops models for support of decision making under uncertainty.
Taking advantage of recognized financial and economic theory, we customize simulation models to fit specific industries, situations and needs.

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Concession Revenue Modelling and Forecasting

Concession Revenue Modelling and Forecasting

This entry is part 2 of 4 in the series Airports

Concessions are an important source of revenue for all airports. An airport simulation model should therefore be able to give a good forecast of revenue from different types of concessions.

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Perception of Risk

Perception of Risk

Google Trends and Google Insights for Search gives us the opportunity to gain information on a subject’s popularity. A paper by Google Inc. and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (USA) have shown how search queries can be used to estimate the current level of influenza activity in the United States. (Ginsberg, Mohebbi, Patel, Brammer, […]

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Where do you go from risk mapping?

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Public Works Projects

Public Works Projects

This entry is part 2 of 4 in the series The fallacies of scenario analysis

In public works and large scale construction or engineering projects – where uncertainty mostly concerns cost, a simplified scenario analysis is often used …

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Selecting Strategy

Selecting Strategy

This entry is part 2 of 2 in the series Valuation

When there is no uncertainty the maximum return criterion can be used to rank strategies. With uncertainty we have to look for the strategy that maximizes the firms expected utility.

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Two letters

Two letters

Dear S@R, I am not interested in the use of stochastic models, and particularly Monte Carlo simulations. I believe that these approaches too often lead to underestimating risks of extreme events …

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