Forecasting sales and forecasting uncertainty
There are a large number of methods used for forecasting ranging from judgmental thru expert systems and time series to causal methods.
There are a large number of methods used for forecasting ranging from judgmental thru expert systems and time series to causal methods.
We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.
The uncertainty about the future yearly Pax is quite high. With this as the backcloth for airport planning the stochastic nature of Pax forecasts has to be taken into account when investment decisions are to be made.