Tag: "Monte Carlo"
Big Issues Needs Big Tools
We believe you know your business best and will in your capacity implement the necessary resources, competence, tools and methods for running a successful and efficient organization.
Still issues related to uncertainty …….
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Stochastic Balance Simulation
We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition deterministic models will miss the important dimension of uncertainty – that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they produce.
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Public Works Projects
The solution to all this is to establish a proper simulation model for every large project and do the Monte Carlo simulation necessary to establish the total cost distribution, and then calculate the risks involved.
The fallacies of Scenario analysis
Scenario analysis is often used in company valuation – with high, low and most likely scenarios to estimate the value range and expected value – but do they give correct answers?
Airport Simulation
The basic determinant of an airport’s economics is the passenger forecast. It is the basis for estimation of aircraft movements, investment in terminal buildings, traffic charges, tax free sales etc.
Corporate Risk Analysis
Strategy @Risk has developed a radical and new approach to the way risk is assessed and measured when considering current and future investment.
The weighted average cost of capital
The weighted cost of capital (WACC) and the return on invested capital (ROIC) are the most important elements in company valuation, and the basis for most strategy and performance evaluation methods.
Decision – Criteria for choosing
The risk is best expressed by using a graph illustrating the probability curve. The slope tells us about the uncertainty involved, the steeper the curve the less uncertainty involved.
