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In public works and large scale construction or engineering projects - where uncertainty mostly concerns cost, a simplified scenario analysis [...]
When there is no uncertainty the maximum return criterion can be used to rank strategies. With uncertainty we have to [...]
Dear S@R, I am not interested in the use of stochastic models, and particularly Monte Carlo simulations. I believe [...]
When in doubt, develop the situation
'Developing the situation' is the common-sense approach to dealing with complexity. Both as a method and a mind-set, it uses [...]
Top Ten Concerns of CFO’s – May 2009
A poll of more than 1200 senior finance executives by CFO Europe together with Tilburg and Duke University ranks the [...]
The fallacies of Scenario analysis
Scenario analysis is often used in company valuation - with high, low and most likely scenarios to estimate the value [...]
Valuation is something usually done only when selling or buying a company. However it is a versatile tool in assessing [...]
A good metric should have a low probability of rejecting a true hypothesis of bankruptcy (false positive) and a high [...]
The Z-score formula for predicting bankruptcy was developed by E. Altman. The score is not intended to predict when a [...]
Historic growth is usually a risky estimate for future growth. To be able to forecast a company’s future performance you [...]
The Risk of Spreadsheet Errors
Audits done shows that nearly 90% of the spreadsheets contained serious errors. Code inspection experiments also shows that even experienced [...]
The basic determinant of an airport’s economics is the passenger forecast. It is the basis for estimation of aircraft movements, [...]
Budgeting involves personal judgments about future values of large number of variables that describes the nature of the business. [...]
When we in 2002 were asked to look into the risk of Cod fish farming, we had to start with [...]
What is the correct company value?
The only concept which has gained universal acceptance by economists is that the value of an asset is determined by [...]