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	<title>Strategy @ Risk &#187; Z-index</title>
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		<title>The Probability of Bankruptcy</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/30/the-probability-of-bankruptcy/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/30/the-probability-of-bankruptcy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2009 22:31:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability of insolvency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Type I error]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Type II error]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Z-index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Z-score]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=986</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A good metric should have a low probability of rejecting a true hypothesis of bankruptcy (false positive) and a high probability of rejecting a false hypothesis of bankruptcy (false negative).]]></description>
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		<title>Predicting Bankruptcy</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/20/predicting-bankruptcy/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/20/predicting-bankruptcy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 18:35:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bankruptcy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability of insolvency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Z-index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Z-score]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Z-score is not intended to predict when a firm will file a formal declaration of bankruptcy in a district court. It is instead a measure of how closely a firm resembles other firms that have filed for bankruptcy.]]></description>
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