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	<title>Strategy @ Risk &#187; Uncertainty</title>
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	<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
	<description>Understanding risk, creating value</description>
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  <title>Strategy @ Risk</title>
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		<item>
		<title>The tool that would improve everybody&#8217;s toolkit</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/03/the-tool-that-would-improve-everybodys-tookit/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/03/the-tool-that-would-improve-everybodys-tookit/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Mar 2011 16:58:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Certainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cognitive toolkit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edge; The World Question Center]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Possibility spaces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability Distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Randomness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk literacy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2310</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Edge, which every year invites scientists, philosophers, writers, thinkers and artists to opine on a major question of the moment ...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/03/the-tool-that-would-improve-everybodys-tookit/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Plans based on average assumptions &#8230;&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/01/plans-based-on-average-assumptions/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/01/plans-based-on-average-assumptions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Mar 2011 14:48:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cauchy distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Error rate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Normal distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[single estimate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Triangular distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uniform distribution]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2285</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Don’t worry about the average, worry about how large the variations are, how frequent they occur and why they exists.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/01/plans-based-on-average-assumptions/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Planning under Uncertainty</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/07/planning-under-uncertainty/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/07/planning-under-uncertainty/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Dec 2010 21:21:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Future state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic dominance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Target analysis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2233</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let’s say that the board have sketched a future desired state (value of equity) of the company and that you are left to find if it is possible to get there and if so - the road to take. ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/07/planning-under-uncertainty/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Uncertainty modeling</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Nov 2010 21:05:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About us]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2149</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Big Issues Needs Big Tools</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/big-issues-needs-big-tools/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/big-issues-needs-big-tools/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Nov 2010 14:30:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About us]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contingency planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of equity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2132</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We believe you know your business best and will in your capacity implement the necessary resources, competence, tools and methods for running a successful and efficient organization.

Still issues related to uncertainty .......]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/big-issues-needs-big-tools/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Uncertainty in Forecasting Airport Pax</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Apr 2010 21:13:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airport modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pax]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The uncertainty about the future yearly Pax is quite high. With this as the backcloth for airport planning the stochastic nature of Pax forecasts has to be taken into account when investment decisions are to be made.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>WACC, Uncertainty and Infrastructure Regulation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/02/08/wacc-and-infrastructure-regulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/02/08/wacc-and-infrastructure-regulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 16:18:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Costs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Capital cost]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of equity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fan Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Infrastructure Regulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Telecom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WACC]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1525</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Calculating Wacc for a company for a number of years into the future is not a trivial task. Wacc is no longer a single value, but a time series with values varying from year to year. ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/02/08/wacc-and-infrastructure-regulation/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Budgeting</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/02/22/budgeting/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/02/22/budgeting/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Feb 2009 22:47:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Budgeting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contingency planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Improving Forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Subjective probabilities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=669</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Budgeting involves personal judgments about future values of large number of variables like; sales, prices, wages, down- time, error rates, exchange rates etc. – variables that describes the nature of the business.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/02/22/budgeting/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Risk and Monte Carlo simulation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2008/02/22/risk-and-monte-carlo-simulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2008/02/22/risk-and-monte-carlo-simulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Feb 2008 23:11:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Randomness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/test/?p=6</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Risk, when does it occurs? Whenever the outcome of a situation is not 0 or 1 you have uncertainty or risk.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2008/02/22/risk-and-monte-carlo-simulation/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
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