Tag: "Risk modelling"
The fallacies of Scenario analysis
Scenario analysis is often used in company valuation – with high, low and most likely scenarios to estimate the value range and expected value – but do they give correct answers?
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The Probability of Bankruptcy
A good metric should have a low probability of rejecting a true hypothesis of bankruptcy (false positive) and a high probability of rejecting a false hypothesis of bankruptcy (false negative).
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Predicting Bankruptcy
The Z-score is not intended to predict when a firm will file a formal declaration of bankruptcy in a district court. It is instead a measure of how closely a firm resembles other firms that have filed for bankruptcy.
