All Posts Tagged With: "Risk"
The Case of Enterprise Risk Management
Traditionally, when estimating costs, project value, equity value or budgeting, one number is generated – a single point estimate.
2010 © | S@R | 0 comments | ContinuedA short presentation of S@R
Most companies have some sort of model describing the company’s operations – but…
2010 © | S@R | 1 comment | Continued
Perception of Risk
Is there less interest in risk and strategy in the Vest than in the East ?
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Valuation as a strategic tool
Valuation is something usually done only when selling or buying a company. However it is a versatile tool in assessing issues as risk and strategies both in operations and finance.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Corporate Risk Analysis
Strategy @Risk has developed a radical and new approach to the way risk is assessed and measured when considering current and future investment.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
The Challenge
Whenever you take a decision where you can loose or gain something, value is at risk. Most decision makers want a situation where they maximize the value, and if everything goes wrong have a minimum of regret.
2008 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Uncertainty – lack of information
Every item in a budget or a profit and loss account represents in principal a probability distribution. In this framework all items whether from the profit and loss account or from the balance sheet will have individual probability distributions.
2008 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Risk – Exposure to Gain and Loss
It is when the decision involves consequences for the decision maker we faces a situation of risk. A traditional way of understanding risk is to calculate how much a certain event varies over time.
2008 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Decision – Criteria for choosing
The risk is best expressed by using a graph illustrating the probability curve. The slope tells us about the uncertainty involved, the steeper the curve the less uncertainty involved.
2008 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
The advantages of simulation modelling
Businesses need the ability to assess what its future economic performance will be. Most organisations do this using a deterministic model, a model which does not consider the uncertainty inherent in all the inputs to the model.
2008 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Risk and Monte Carlo simulation
Risk, when does it occurs? Whenever the outcome of a situation is not 0 or 1 you have uncertainty or risk.
2008 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Risk, price and value
Having arrived at the probability distribution for the value of equity (see full story) we are able to calculate expected gain, loss and their probability when investing in a company where the capitalized value (price) is known.
2008 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
