Tag: "Monte Carlo simulation"
Forecasting sales and forecasting uncertainty
There are a large number of methods used for forecasting ranging from judgmental thru expert systems and time series to causal methods.
Most are used to give single point forecast or at most single point forecasts for a limited number of scenarios.
The corn and ethanol futures hedge ratios
We are here looking for hedge models and hedge ratio estimations techniques that are “good enough” and that can fit into valuation models using Monte Carlo simulation. The model have to be dynamic in the sense that as new data (contracts) becomes available it can read the data, perform the necessary statistical analysis, produce the hedging coefficients and do the simulations – in one go.
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The probability distribution of the bioethanol crush margin
In the following we will illustrate some of the risks the bioethanol producer is facing using corn as feedstock. However, these risks will persist regardless of the feedstock and production process chosen.
Working Capital Strategy
Net working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. It can be both positive and negative depending on the firm’s strategic position in the market.
