ERM

You only live once

You only live once

This entry is part 4 of 4 in the series The fallacies of scenario analysis

Let’s say that you are considering new investment opportunities for your company and that the sales department has guesstimated that the market for one of your products will most likely grow by ….

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The tool that would improve everybody’s toolkit

The tool that would improve everybody’s toolkit

Edge, which every year invites scientists, philosophers, writers, thinkers and artists to opine on a major question of the moment, asked this year: “What scientific concept would improve everybody’s cognitive toolkit?”

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Plans based on average assumptions ……

Plans based on average assumptions ……

This entry is part 3 of 4 in the series The fallacies of scenario analysis

Don’t worry about the average, worry about how large the variations are, how frequent they occur and why they exists.

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Planning under Uncertainty

Planning under Uncertainty

This entry is part 3 of 6 in the series Balance simulation

Let’s say that the board have sketched a future desired value of the company’s equit, and that you are left to find out if it is possible to get there and if so – the road to take …

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Working Capital and the Balance Sheet

Working Capital and the Balance Sheet

This entry is part 2 of 3 in the series Working Capital

The conservation-of-value principle says that it doesn’t matter how you slice the financial pie, only improving cash flows will create value …

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Uncertainty modeling

Uncertainty modeling

This entry is part 2 of 3 in the series What We Do

We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.

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