Decision

Uncertainty modeling

Uncertainty modeling

This entry is part 2 of 3 in the series What We Do

We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.

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When in doubt, develop the situation

When in doubt, develop the situation

‘Developing the situation’ is the common-sense approach to dealing with complexity. Both as a method and a mind-set, it uses time and our minds to actively build context …

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Valuation as a strategic tool

Valuation as a strategic tool

This entry is part 1 of 2 in the series Valuation

Valuation is something usually done only when selling or buying a company. However it is a versatile tool in assessing issues as risk and strategies both in operations and finance …

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Fish farming

Fish farming

When we in 2002 were asked to look into the risk of Cod fish farming, we had to start with the basics; how do cod feed and grow at different locations and what is the mortality at the same locations.

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The Probability of Gain and Loss

The Probability of Gain and Loss

Every item written into a firm’s profit and loss account and its balance sheet is a stochastic variable with a probability distribution derived from probability distributions for each factor of production.

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