Tag: "Decision"
Uncertainty modeling
We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.
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When in doubt, develop the situation
Planning for an uncertain future is a hard task, but preparing for it by adapting to the uncertainties and risk uncovered is well within our abilities.
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Valuation as a strategic tool
Valuation is something usually done only when selling or buying a company. However it is a versatile tool in assessing issues as risk and strategies both in operations and finance.
Fish farming
When we in 2002 were asked to look into the risk of Cod fish farming, we had to start with the basics; how do cod feed and grow at different locations and what is the mortality at the same locations.
The Probability of Gain and Loss
Every item written into a firm’s profit and loss account and its balance sheet is a stochastic variable with a probability distribution derived from probability distributions for each factor of production.
