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	<title>Strategy @ Risk</title>
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	<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
	<description>Understanding risk, creating value</description>
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  <title>Strategy @ Risk</title>
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		<item>
		<title>Forecasting sales and forecasting uncertainty</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2012/04/27/forecasting-sales-and-forecasting-uncertainty/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2012/04/27/forecasting-sales-and-forecasting-uncertainty/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Apr 2012 18:43:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fan Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GDP Growth rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Improving Forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Monetary Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prediction band]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictive analytics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simple regression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World Economic Outlook]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2924</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There are a large number of methods used for forecasting ranging from judgmental  thru expert systems and time series to causal methods. 
Most are used to give single point forecast or at most single point forecasts for a limited number of scenarios.  ]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>“How can you be better than us understand our business risk?&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2012/03/19/how-can-you-be-better-than-us-understand-our-business-risk/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2012/03/19/how-can-you-be-better-than-us-understand-our-business-risk/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Mar 2012 18:59:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Silo thinking]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2850</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is a question we often hear and the simple answer is that we don’t! ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2012/03/19/how-can-you-be-better-than-us-understand-our-business-risk/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Be prepared for a bumpy ride</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2012/03/13/be-prepared-for-a-bumpy-ride/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2012/03/13/be-prepared-for-a-bumpy-ride/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Mar 2012 13:47:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Allevo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2817</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[“It’s important to take risks, but it’s idiotic to take them blindly.”  ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2012/03/13/be-prepared-for-a-bumpy-ride/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>M&amp;A: When two plus two is five or three or &#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/14/ma-when-two-plus-two-is-five-or-three/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/14/ma-when-two-plus-two-is-five-or-three/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Dec 2011 19:38:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mergers & Acquisition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dysergy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Equity value]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[M&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mergers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pricing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Randomness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stochasticity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Synergy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2598</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mergers &#038; Acquisitions (M&#038;A) is a way for companies to expand rapidly and much faster than organic growth would have allowed.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/14/ma-when-two-plus-two-is-five-or-three/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Introduction to Simulation Models</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/09/introduction-to-simulation-models/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/09/introduction-to-simulation-models/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Dec 2011 19:19:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic simulation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2574</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Simulation models sets out to mimic real life company operations.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/09/introduction-to-simulation-models/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The corn and ethanol futures hedge ratios</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/01/the-corn-and-ethanol-futures-hedge-ratios/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/01/the-corn-and-ethanol-futures-hedge-ratios/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Dec 2011 21:26:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Basis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Continuous contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethanol futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Futures contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hedge ratios]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inverse regression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marked to market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minimum variation hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minimum-variance hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OLS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Settlement variations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simple regression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spot prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tailed hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The number of futures contracts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Variance ratio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WACC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weighted regression]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2490</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We are here looking for hedge models and hedge ratio estimations techniques that are “good enough” and that can fit into valuation models using Monte Carlo simulation. The model have to be dynamic in the sense that as new data (contracts) becomes available it can read the data, perform the necessary statistical analysis, produce the hedging coefficients and do the simulations – in one go.    ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/01/the-corn-and-ethanol-futures-hedge-ratios/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>You only live once</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Aug 2011 11:07:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ensemble average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ergodic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[M&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-ergodic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-stationary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stationary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[time average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Valuation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2462</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It can be shown that the ensemble average always will overestimate the growth and thus can falsely lead to wrong conclusions.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The probability distribution of the bioethanol crush margin</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jul 2011 15:11:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic choices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corn price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush margin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush Profit Margin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush ratio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush Spread]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethanol price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethanol yield]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EtOH Yield]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[extractable starch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forward contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Futures contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedged]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[moistur in corn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nominal grain loss]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk exposure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk Mitigation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Risk Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Throughput Accounting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unhedged]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2381</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the following we will illustrate some of the risks the bioethanol producer is facing using corn  as feedstock. However, these risks will persist regardless of the feedstock and production process chosen. ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Moddeling World 2011</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/06/20/moddeling-world-2011/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/06/20/moddeling-world-2011/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jun 2011 10:15:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transport]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2363</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[S&#038;R participated as a keynote speaker at the Modelling World conference held in London June 16. The theme was forecasting and decision making inn an uncertain world]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/06/20/moddeling-world-2011/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The tool that would improve everybody&#8217;s toolkit</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/03/the-tool-that-would-improve-everybodys-tookit/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/03/the-tool-that-would-improve-everybodys-tookit/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Mar 2011 16:58:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Certainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cognitive toolkit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edge; The World Question Center]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Possibility spaces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability Distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Randomness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk literacy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2310</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Edge, which every year invites scientists, philosophers, writers, thinkers and artists to opine on a major question of the moment ...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/03/the-tool-that-would-improve-everybodys-tookit/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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