<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Strategy @ Risk &#187; Modelling</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/category/other-topics/modelling/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
	<description>Understanding risk, creating value</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 25 Jan 2012 20:02:43 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1</generator>
<image>
  <link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
  <url>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/images/favicon.ico</url>
  <title>Strategy @ Risk</title>
</image>
		<item>
		<title>Introduction to Simulation Models</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/09/introduction-to-simulation-models/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/09/introduction-to-simulation-models/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Dec 2011 19:19:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic simulation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2574</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Simulation models sets out to mimic real life company operations.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/09/introduction-to-simulation-models/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Moddeling World 2011</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/06/20/moddeling-world-2011/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/06/20/moddeling-world-2011/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Jun 2011 10:15:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Transport]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2363</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[S&#038;R participated as a keynote speaker at the Modelling World conference held in London June 16. The theme was forecasting and decision making inn an uncertain world]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/06/20/moddeling-world-2011/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The tool that would improve everybody&#8217;s toolkit</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/03/the-tool-that-would-improve-everybodys-tookit/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/03/the-tool-that-would-improve-everybodys-tookit/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Mar 2011 16:58:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Certainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cognitive toolkit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edge; The World Question Center]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Possibility spaces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability Distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Randomness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk literacy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2310</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Edge, which every year invites scientists, philosophers, writers, thinkers and artists to opine on a major question of the moment ...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/03/the-tool-that-would-improve-everybodys-tookit/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Plans based on average assumptions &#8230;&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/01/plans-based-on-average-assumptions/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/01/plans-based-on-average-assumptions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Mar 2011 14:48:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cauchy distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Error rate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Normal distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[single estimate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Triangular distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uniform distribution]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2285</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Don’t worry about the average, worry about how large the variations are, how frequent they occur and why they exists.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/01/plans-based-on-average-assumptions/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Working Capital and the Balance Sheet</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/01/working-capital-and-the-balance-sheet/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/01/working-capital-and-the-balance-sheet/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Dec 2010 11:48:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[operating capital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[working capital]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2192</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Simplifying the balance sheet - using the concept of working- and operating capital.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/01/working-capital-and-the-balance-sheet/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Uncertainty modeling</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Nov 2010 21:05:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About us]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2149</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Working Capital Strategy</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/10/18/working-capital-strategy-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/10/18/working-capital-strategy-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Oct 2010 15:09:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash conversion cycle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cash management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[operating capital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[working capital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[working capital management]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1844</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Net working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. It can be both positive and negative depending on the firm’s strategic position in the market.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/10/18/working-capital-strategy-2/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Solving Uncertainty in Simulation Models</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/08/02/solving-uncertainty-in-simulation-models/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/08/02/solving-uncertainty-in-simulation-models/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Aug 2010 10:13:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision problems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[information incompleteness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[knowledge incompleteness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[parametric uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Problem solving]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[procedural uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Residual uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strong substantive uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[structural uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[substantive uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weak substantive uncertainty]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1756</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Uncertainty in your firm's operations is most likely complex and will need systematic treatment through simulation modeling - by thinking outside the box.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/08/02/solving-uncertainty-in-simulation-models/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Uncertainty in Forecasting Airport Pax</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Apr 2010 21:13:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airport modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pax]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The uncertainty about the future yearly Pax is quite high. With this as the backcloth for airport planning the stochastic nature of Pax forecasts has to be taken into account when investment decisions are to be made.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Case of Enterprise Risk Management</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Apr 2010 09:39:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Budgeting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[COSO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[S@R]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1637</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Traditionally, when estimating costs, project value, equity value or budgeting, one number is generated – a single point estimate.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>

