Modelling
Solving Uncertainty in Simulation Models
Uncertainty in your firm’s operations is most likely complex and will need systematic treatment through simulation modeling – by thinking outside the box.
2010 © | S@R | 0 comments | ContinuedThe Uncertainty in Forecasting Airport Pax
The uncertainty about the future yearly Pax is quite high. With this as the backcloth for airport planning the stochastic nature of Pax forecasts has to be taken into account when investment decisions are to be made.
2010 © | S@R | 0 comments | ContinuedThe Case of Enterprise Risk Management
Traditionally, when estimating costs, project value, equity value or budgeting, one number is generated – a single point estimate.
2010 © | S@R | 0 comments | ContinuedA short presentation of S@R
Most companies have some sort of model describing the company’s operations – but…
2010 © | S@R | 1 comment | ContinuedWACC, Uncertainty and Infrastructure Regulation
Calculating Wacc for a company for a number of years into the future is not a trivial task. Wacc is no longer a single value, but a time series with values varying from year to year.
2010 © | S@R | 1 comment | Continued
Public Works Projects
The solution to all this is to establish a proper simulation model for every large project and do the Monte Carlo simulation necessary to establish the total cost distribution, and then calculate the risks involved.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Selecting Strategy
When there is no uncertainty the maximum return criterion can be used to rank strategies. With uncertainty we have to look for the strategy that maximizes the firms expected utility.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
