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	<title>Strategy @ Risk &#187; Decision making</title>
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	<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
	<description>Understanding risk, creating value</description>
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  <title>Strategy @ Risk</title>
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		<item>
		<title>M&amp;A: When two plus two is five or three or &#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/14/ma-when-two-plus-two-is-five-or-three/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/14/ma-when-two-plus-two-is-five-or-three/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Dec 2011 19:38:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mergers & Acquisition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dysergy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Equity value]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[M&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mergers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pricing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Randomness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stochasticity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Synergy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2598</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mergers &#038; Acquisitions (M&#038;A) is a way for companies to expand rapidly and much faster than organic growth would have allowed.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/14/ma-when-two-plus-two-is-five-or-three/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The corn and ethanol futures hedge ratios</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/01/the-corn-and-ethanol-futures-hedge-ratios/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/01/the-corn-and-ethanol-futures-hedge-ratios/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Dec 2011 21:26:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Basis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Continuous contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethanol futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Futures contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hedge ratios]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inverse regression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marked to market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minimum variation hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minimum-variance hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OLS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Settlement variations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simple regression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spot prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tailed hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The number of futures contracts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Variance ratio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WACC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weighted regression]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2490</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We are here looking for hedge models and hedge ratio estimations techniques that are “good enough” and that can fit into valuation models using Monte Carlo simulation. The model have to be dynamic in the sense that as new data (contracts) becomes available it can read the data, perform the necessary statistical analysis, produce the hedging coefficients and do the simulations – in one go.    ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/01/the-corn-and-ethanol-futures-hedge-ratios/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>You only live once</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Aug 2011 11:07:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ensemble average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ergodic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[M&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-ergodic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-stationary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stationary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[time average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Valuation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2462</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It can be shown that the ensemble average always will overestimate the growth and thus can falsely lead to wrong conclusions.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The probability distribution of the bioethanol crush margin</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jul 2011 15:11:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic choices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corn price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush margin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush Profit Margin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush ratio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush Spread]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethanol price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethanol yield]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EtOH Yield]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[extractable starch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forward contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Futures contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedged]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[moistur in corn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nominal grain loss]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk exposure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk Mitigation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Risk Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Throughput Accounting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unhedged]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2381</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the following we will illustrate some of the risks the bioethanol producer is facing using corn  as feedstock. However, these risks will persist regardless of the feedstock and production process chosen. ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The tool that would improve everybody&#8217;s toolkit</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/03/the-tool-that-would-improve-everybodys-tookit/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/03/the-tool-that-would-improve-everybodys-tookit/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Mar 2011 16:58:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Certainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cognitive toolkit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edge; The World Question Center]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Possibility spaces]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability Distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Randomness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk literacy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2310</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Edge, which every year invites scientists, philosophers, writers, thinkers and artists to opine on a major question of the moment ...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/03/the-tool-that-would-improve-everybodys-tookit/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Planning under Uncertainty</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/07/planning-under-uncertainty/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/07/planning-under-uncertainty/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Dec 2010 21:21:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Future state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic dominance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Target analysis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2233</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let’s say that the board have sketched a future desired state (value of equity) of the company and that you are left to find if it is possible to get there and if so - the road to take. ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/07/planning-under-uncertainty/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Uncertainty modeling</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Nov 2010 21:05:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About us]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2149</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Solving Uncertainty in Simulation Models</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/08/02/solving-uncertainty-in-simulation-models/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/08/02/solving-uncertainty-in-simulation-models/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Aug 2010 10:13:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision problems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[information incompleteness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[knowledge incompleteness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[parametric uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Problem solving]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[procedural uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Residual uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strong substantive uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[structural uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[substantive uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weak substantive uncertainty]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1756</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Uncertainty in your firm's operations is most likely complex and will need systematic treatment through simulation modeling - by thinking outside the box.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/08/02/solving-uncertainty-in-simulation-models/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Uncertainty in Forecasting Airport Pax</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Apr 2010 21:13:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airport modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pax]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The uncertainty about the future yearly Pax is quite high. With this as the backcloth for airport planning the stochastic nature of Pax forecasts has to be taken into account when investment decisions are to be made.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Case of Enterprise Risk Management</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Apr 2010 09:39:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Budgeting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[COSO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[S@R]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1637</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Traditionally, when estimating costs, project value, equity value or budgeting, one number is generated – a single point estimate.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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