Other topics
The Uncertainty in Forecasting Airport Pax
The uncertainty about the future yearly Pax is quite high. With this as the backcloth for airport planning the stochastic nature of Pax forecasts has to be taken into account when investment decisions are to be made.
2010 © | S@R | 0 comments | ContinuedThe Case of Enterprise Risk Management
Traditionally, when estimating costs, project value, equity value or budgeting, one number is generated – a single point estimate.
2010 © | S@R | 0 comments | ContinuedA short presentation of S@R
Most companies have some sort of model describing the company’s operations – but…
2010 © | S@R | 1 comment | ContinuedWACC, Uncertainty and Infrastructure Regulation
Calculating Wacc for a company for a number of years into the future is not a trivial task. Wacc is no longer a single value, but a time series with values varying from year to year.
2010 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Credit Risk
A number of other statistical methods have also been used to predict future company failure and credit risk.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Perception of Risk
Is there less interest in risk and strategy in the Vest than in the East ?
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Where do you go from risk mapping?
You can’t control what you can’t measure
2009 © | S@R | 3 comments | Continued
Public Works Projects
The solution to all this is to establish a proper simulation model for every large project and do the Monte Carlo simulation necessary to establish the total cost distribution, and then calculate the risks involved.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Selecting Strategy
When there is no uncertainty the maximum return criterion can be used to rank strategies. With uncertainty we have to look for the strategy that maximizes the firms expected utility.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Two letters
If you should reconsider, we will be happy to meet with you to explain the nature of our work. To us nothing is better than a demanding customer.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
The fallacies of Scenario analysis
Scenario analysis is often used in company valuation – with high, low and most likely scenarios to estimate the value range and expected value – but do they give correct answers?
2009 © | S@R | 3 comments | Continued
The Risk of Spreadsheet Errors
Audits done shows that nearly 90% of the spreadsheets contained serious errors. Code inspection experiments also shows that even experienced users have a hard time finding errors succeeding in only finding 54% on average.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
