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	<title>Strategy @ Risk &#187; Corporate Strategy</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/category/corporate-strategy/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
	<description>Understanding risk, creating value</description>
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  <link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
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  <title>Strategy @ Risk</title>
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		<item>
		<title>M&amp;A: When two plus two is five or three or &#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/14/ma-when-two-plus-two-is-five-or-three/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/14/ma-when-two-plus-two-is-five-or-three/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Dec 2011 19:38:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mergers & Acquisition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dysergy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Equity value]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[M&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mergers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pricing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Randomness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stochasticity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Synergy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2598</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mergers &#038; Acquisitions (M&#038;A) is a way for companies to expand rapidly and much faster than organic growth would have allowed.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/14/ma-when-two-plus-two-is-five-or-three/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>You only live once</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Aug 2011 11:07:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ensemble average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ergodic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[M&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-ergodic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-stationary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stationary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[time average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Valuation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2462</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It can be shown that the ensemble average always will overestimate the growth and thus can falsely lead to wrong conclusions.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The probability distribution of the bioethanol crush margin</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jul 2011 15:11:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic choices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corn price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush margin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush Profit Margin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush ratio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush Spread]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethanol price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethanol yield]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EtOH Yield]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[extractable starch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forward contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Futures contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedged]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[moistur in corn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nominal grain loss]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk exposure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk Mitigation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Risk Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Throughput Accounting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unhedged]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2381</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the following we will illustrate some of the risks the bioethanol producer is facing using corn  as feedstock. However, these risks will persist regardless of the feedstock and production process chosen. ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Planning under Uncertainty</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/07/planning-under-uncertainty/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/07/planning-under-uncertainty/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Dec 2010 21:21:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Future state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic dominance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Target analysis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2233</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let’s say that the board have sketched a future desired state (value of equity) of the company and that you are left to find if it is possible to get there and if so - the road to take. ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/07/planning-under-uncertainty/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Uncertainty modeling</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Nov 2010 21:05:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About us]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2149</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Stochastic Balance Simulation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 May 2010 20:02:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DFA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dynamic Financial Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IFRS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ledger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trial balance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong.  In addition deterministic models will miss the important dimension of uncertainty - that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they produce.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A short presentation of S@R</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/03/a-short-presentation-of-sr/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/03/a-short-presentation-of-sr/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Apr 2010 15:45:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1612</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Most companies have some sort of model describing the company’s operations - but...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/03/a-short-presentation-of-sr/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Selecting Strategy</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/07/22/selecting-strategy/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/07/22/selecting-strategy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jul 2009 09:55:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic choices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision theory]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision tree]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dominance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Lower partial moment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk avers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk-seeking]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ruin aversion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic dominance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Upside potential ratio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Utility]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1155</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When there is no uncertainty the maximum return criterion can be used to rank strategies. With uncertainty we have to look for the strategy that maximizes the firms expected utility.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/07/22/selecting-strategy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>When in doubt, develop the situation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/07/01/when-in-doubt-develop-the-situation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/07/01/when-in-doubt-develop-the-situation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 2009 21:43:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic choices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial strategies]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1088</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Planning for an uncertain future is a hard task, but preparing for it by adapting to the uncertainties and risk uncovered is well within our abilities.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/07/01/when-in-doubt-develop-the-situation/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Valuation as a strategic tool</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/04/24/valuation-as-a-strategic-tool/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/04/24/valuation-as-a-strategic-tool/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Apr 2009 10:17:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Strategic choices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Valuation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Valuation services]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1009</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Valuation is something usually done only when selling or buying a company. However it is a versatile tool in assessing issues as risk and strategies both in operations and finance.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/04/24/valuation-as-a-strategic-tool/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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