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	<title>Strategy @ Risk &#187; Operations</title>
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	<description>Understanding risk, creating value</description>
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  <title>Strategy @ Risk</title>
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		<item>
		<title>You only live once</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Aug 2011 11:07:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ensemble average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ergodic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[M&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-ergodic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-stationary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stationary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[time average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Valuation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2462</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It can be shown that the ensemble average always will overestimate the growth and thus can falsely lead to wrong conclusions.]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>The probability distribution of the bioethanol crush margin</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jul 2011 15:11:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic choices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corn price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush margin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush Profit Margin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush ratio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush Spread]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethanol price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethanol yield]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EtOH Yield]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[extractable starch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forward contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Futures contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedged]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[moistur in corn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nominal grain loss]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk exposure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk Mitigation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Risk Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Throughput Accounting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unhedged]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2381</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the following we will illustrate some of the risks the bioethanol producer is facing using corn  as feedstock. However, these risks will persist regardless of the feedstock and production process chosen. ]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Uncertainty in Forecasting Airport Pax</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Apr 2010 21:13:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airport modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pax]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The uncertainty about the future yearly Pax is quite high. With this as the backcloth for airport planning the stochastic nature of Pax forecasts has to be taken into account when investment decisions are to be made.]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Value of Information</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/03/15/the-value-of-information/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/03/15/the-value-of-information/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:47:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Profit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic dominance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1581</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Enterprise risk management only has value to those who know that the future is uncertain]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Concession Revenue Modelling and Forecasting</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/11/11/concession-revenue-modelling-and-forecasting/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/11/11/concession-revenue-modelling-and-forecasting/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:13:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airport concessions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airport modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EBITDA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modelling]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1470</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Concessions are an important source of revenue for all airports. An airport simulation model should therefore be able to give a good forecast of revenue from different types of concessions.]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Airport Simulation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/02/24/airport-simulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/02/24/airport-simulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Feb 2009 19:35:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airport modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ATM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EBITDA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elasticities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pax]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Traffic simulation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=730</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The basic determinant of an airport’s economics is the passenger forecast. It is the basis for estimation of aircraft movements, investment in terminal buildings, traffic charges, tax free sales etc. ]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Real options</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2008/02/16/real-options/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2008/02/16/real-options/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Feb 2008 23:44:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision tree]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mining]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Selecting strategy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/test/?p=8</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In real life both for investment decisions and in valuation of companies there are managerial flexibility in the sense that at future points of time there is flexibility in choosing among alternatives.]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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