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	<title>Strategy @ Risk &#187; Corporate risk analysis</title>
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	<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
	<description>Understanding risk, creating value</description>
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  <link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
  <url>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/s-r-3.ico</url>
  <title>Strategy @ Risk</title>
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		<item>
		<title>Stochastic Balance Simulation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 May 2010 20:02:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DFA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dynamic Financial Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IFRS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ledger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trial balance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong.  In addition deterministic models will miss the important dimension of uncertainty - that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they produce.]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<title>The Uncertainty in Forecasting Airport Pax</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Apr 2010 21:13:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airport modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pax]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The uncertainty about the future yearly Pax is quite high. With this as the backcloth for airport planning the stochastic nature of Pax forecasts has to be taken into account when investment decisions are to be made.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A short presentation of S@R</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/03/a-short-presentation-of-sr/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/03/a-short-presentation-of-sr/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Apr 2010 15:45:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1612</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Most companies have some sort of model describing the company’s operations - but...]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Value of Information</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/03/15/the-value-of-information/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/03/15/the-value-of-information/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:47:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Profit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic dominance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1581</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Enterprise risk management only has value to those who know that the future is uncertain]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>WACC, Uncertainty and Infrastructure Regulation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/02/08/wacc-and-infrastructure-regulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/02/08/wacc-and-infrastructure-regulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 16:18:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Costs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Capital cost]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of equity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fan Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Infrastructure Regulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Telecom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WACC]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1525</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Calculating Wacc for a company for a number of years into the future is not a trivial task. Wacc is no longer a single value, but a time series with values varying from year to year. ]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Concession Revenue Modelling and Forecasting</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/11/11/concession-revenue-modelling-and-forecasting/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/11/11/concession-revenue-modelling-and-forecasting/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Nov 2009 22:13:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airport concessions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airport modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EBITDA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modelling]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1470</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Concessions are an important source of revenue for all airports. An airport simulation model should therefore be able to give a good forecast of revenue from different types of concessions.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/11/11/concession-revenue-modelling-and-forecasting/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>When in doubt, develop the situation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/07/01/when-in-doubt-develop-the-situation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/07/01/when-in-doubt-develop-the-situation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Jul 2009 21:43:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic choices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial strategies]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1088</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Planning for an uncertain future is a hard task, but preparing for it by adapting to the uncertainties and risk uncovered is well within our abilities.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/07/01/when-in-doubt-develop-the-situation/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Top Ten Concerns of CFO’s – May 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/06/11/top-ten-concerns-of-cfo%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%93-may-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/06/11/top-ten-concerns-of-cfo%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%93-may-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Jun 2009 20:08:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contingency planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Currency risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rate risk]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1068</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A poll of more than 1200 senior finance executives by CFO Europe together with Tilburg and Duke University ranks the ten top external and internal concerns.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/06/11/top-ten-concerns-of-cfo%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%93-may-2009/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The fallacies of Scenario analysis</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/05/04/the-fallacies-of-scenario-analysis/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/05/04/the-fallacies-of-scenario-analysis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 04 May 2009 12:50:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario analysis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1034</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Scenario analysis is often used in company valuation - with high, low and most likely scenarios to estimate the value range and expected value - but do they give correct answers? ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/05/04/the-fallacies-of-scenario-analysis/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>3</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Airport Simulation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/02/24/airport-simulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/02/24/airport-simulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 24 Feb 2009 19:35:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airport modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ATM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EBITDA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Elasticities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pax]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Traffic simulation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=730</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The basic determinant of an airport’s economics is the passenger forecast. It is the basis for estimation of aircraft movements, investment in terminal buildings, traffic charges, tax free sales etc. ]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
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