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	<title>Strategy @ Risk &#187; Corporate risk analysis</title>
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	<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
	<description>Understanding risk, creating value</description>
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  <link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
  <url>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/images/favicon.ico</url>
  <title>Strategy @ Risk</title>
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		<item>
		<title>You only live once</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 02 Aug 2011 11:07:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ensemble average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ergodic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[M&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Market growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-ergodic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[non-stationary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stationary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[time average]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Valuation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2462</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It can be shown that the ensemble average always will overestimate the growth and thus can falsely lead to wrong conclusions.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/08/02/you-only-live-once/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The probability distribution of the bioethanol crush margin</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jul 2011 15:11:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic choices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corn price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush margin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush Profit Margin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush ratio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crush Spread]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethanol price]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethanol yield]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EtOH Yield]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[extractable starch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forward contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Futures contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedged]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[moistur in corn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nominal grain loss]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk exposure]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk Mitigation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic Risk Management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Throughput Accounting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unhedged]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2381</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the following we will illustrate some of the risks the bioethanol producer is facing using corn  as feedstock. However, these risks will persist regardless of the feedstock and production process chosen. ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/07/24/the-probability-distribution-of-the-bioethanol-crush-margin/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Plans based on average assumptions &#8230;&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/01/plans-based-on-average-assumptions/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/01/plans-based-on-average-assumptions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Mar 2011 14:48:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cauchy distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Error rate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Normal distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[single estimate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Triangular distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uniform distribution]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2285</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Don’t worry about the average, worry about how large the variations are, how frequent they occur and why they exists.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/01/plans-based-on-average-assumptions/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Planning under Uncertainty</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/07/planning-under-uncertainty/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/07/planning-under-uncertainty/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Dec 2010 21:21:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Future state]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic dominance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Target analysis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2233</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let’s say that the board have sketched a future desired state (value of equity) of the company and that you are left to find if it is possible to get there and if so - the road to take. ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/07/planning-under-uncertainty/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Uncertainty modeling</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Nov 2010 21:05:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About us]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2149</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Stochastic Balance Simulation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 May 2010 20:02:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DFA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dynamic Financial Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IFRS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ledger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trial balance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong.  In addition deterministic models will miss the important dimension of uncertainty - that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they produce.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Uncertainty in Forecasting Airport Pax</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 Apr 2010 21:13:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airport modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Airports]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pax]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The uncertainty about the future yearly Pax is quite high. With this as the backcloth for airport planning the stochastic nature of Pax forecasts has to be taken into account when investment decisions are to be made.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/22/the-uncertainty-in-forecasting-airport-pax/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A short presentation of S@R</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/03/a-short-presentation-of-sr/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/03/a-short-presentation-of-sr/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Apr 2010 15:45:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1612</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Most companies have some sort of model describing the company’s operations - but...]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/03/a-short-presentation-of-sr/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Value of Information</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/03/15/the-value-of-information/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/03/15/the-value-of-information/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:47:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Profit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic dominance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1581</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Enterprise risk management only has value to those who know that the future is uncertain]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/03/15/the-value-of-information/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>WACC, Uncertainty and Infrastructure Regulation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/02/08/wacc-and-infrastructure-regulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/02/08/wacc-and-infrastructure-regulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 16:18:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Costs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Capital cost]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of equity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fan Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Infrastructure Regulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Telecom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WACC]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1525</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Calculating Wacc for a company for a number of years into the future is not a trivial task. Wacc is no longer a single value, but a time series with values varying from year to year. ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/02/08/wacc-and-infrastructure-regulation/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
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