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	<title>Strategy @ Risk &#187; P&amp;L simulation</title>
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	<description>Understanding risk, creating value</description>
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  <link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
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  <title>Strategy @ Risk</title>
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		<item>
		<title>Stochastic Balance Simulation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 May 2010 20:02:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DFA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dynamic Financial Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IFRS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ledger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trial balance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong.  In addition deterministic models will miss the important dimension of uncertainty - that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they produce.]]></description>
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		<title>The Case of Enterprise Risk Management</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Apr 2010 09:39:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Budgeting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[COSO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[S@R]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1637</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Traditionally, when estimating costs, project value, equity value or budgeting, one number is generated – a single point estimate.]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A short presentation of S@R</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/03/a-short-presentation-of-sr/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/03/a-short-presentation-of-sr/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Apr 2010 15:45:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1612</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Most companies have some sort of model describing the company’s operations - but...]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>The Probability of Bankruptcy</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/30/the-probability-of-bankruptcy/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/30/the-probability-of-bankruptcy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2009 22:31:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability of insolvency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Type I error]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Type II error]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Z-index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Z-score]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=986</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A good metric should have a low probability of rejecting a true hypothesis of bankruptcy (false positive) and a high probability of rejecting a false hypothesis of bankruptcy (false negative).]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Predicting Bankruptcy</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/20/predicting-bankruptcy/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/20/predicting-bankruptcy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 18:35:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bankruptcy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability of insolvency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Z-index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Z-score]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=927</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Z-score is not intended to predict when a firm will file a formal declaration of bankruptcy in a district court. It is instead a measure of how closely a firm resembles other firms that have filed for bankruptcy.]]></description>
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		<title>The Risk of Bankruptcy</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/16/the-risk-of-bankruptcy/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/16/the-risk-of-bankruptcy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2009 10:32:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bankruptcy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Insolvency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability of insolvency]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=890</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There are several models in use for predicting bankruptcy and we have in our balance simulation model implemented two;  Altman’s Z-score model and the risk index Z developed by Hannan and Hanweck.]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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