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	<title>Strategy @ Risk &#187; Balance sheet and P&amp;L simulation</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/category/balancepl_simulation/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
	<description>Understanding risk, creating value</description>
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  <link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
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  <title>Strategy @ Risk</title>
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		<item>
		<title>M&amp;A: When two plus two is five or three or &#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/14/ma-when-two-plus-two-is-five-or-three/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/14/ma-when-two-plus-two-is-five-or-three/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 14 Dec 2011 19:38:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mergers & Acquisition]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dysergy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Equity value]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[M&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mergers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pricing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Randomness]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stochasticity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Synergy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2598</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Mergers &#038; Acquisitions (M&#038;A) is a way for companies to expand rapidly and much faster than organic growth would have allowed.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/14/ma-when-two-plus-two-is-five-or-three/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Introduction to Simulation Models</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/09/introduction-to-simulation-models/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/09/introduction-to-simulation-models/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 09 Dec 2011 19:19:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic simulation]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2574</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Simulation models sets out to mimic real life company operations.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/09/introduction-to-simulation-models/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The corn and ethanol futures hedge ratios</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/01/the-corn-and-ethanol-futures-hedge-ratios/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/01/the-corn-and-ethanol-futures-hedge-ratios/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Dec 2011 21:26:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedging]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Basis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Continuous contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethanol futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Futures contract]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hedge ratios]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inverse regression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marked to market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minimum variation hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minimum-variance hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OLS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Settlement variations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simple regression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spot prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tailed hedge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The number of futures contracts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Variance ratio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WACC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Weighted regression]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2490</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We are here looking for hedge models and hedge ratio estimations techniques that are “good enough” and that can fit into valuation models using Monte Carlo simulation. The model have to be dynamic in the sense that as new data (contracts) becomes available it can read the data, perform the necessary statistical analysis, produce the hedging coefficients and do the simulations – in one go.    ]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/12/01/the-corn-and-ethanol-futures-hedge-ratios/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Plans based on average assumptions &#8230;&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/01/plans-based-on-average-assumptions/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/01/plans-based-on-average-assumptions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Mar 2011 14:48:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cauchy distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Error rate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Normal distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[single estimate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Triangular distribution]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uniform distribution]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2285</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Don’t worry about the average, worry about how large the variations are, how frequent they occur and why they exists.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2011/03/01/plans-based-on-average-assumptions/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Working Capital and the Balance Sheet</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/01/working-capital-and-the-balance-sheet/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/01/working-capital-and-the-balance-sheet/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 01 Dec 2010 11:48:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[operating capital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[working capital]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2192</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Simplifying the balance sheet - using the concept of working- and operating capital.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/12/01/working-capital-and-the-balance-sheet/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Uncertainty modeling</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Nov 2010 21:05:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About us]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2149</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong. In addition will deterministic models miss the important uncertainty dimension that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they bring forth.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/uncertainty-modeling/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Big Issues Needs Big Tools</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/big-issues-needs-big-tools/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/big-issues-needs-big-tools/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Nov 2010 14:30:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About us]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contingency planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of equity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=2132</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We believe you know your business best and will in your capacity implement the necessary resources, competence, tools and methods for running a successful and efficient organization.

Still issues related to uncertainty .......]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/11/24/big-issues-needs-big-tools/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Working Capital Strategy</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/10/18/working-capital-strategy-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/10/18/working-capital-strategy-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 18 Oct 2010 15:09:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash conversion cycle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cash management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[operating capital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[working capital]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[working capital management]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1844</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Net working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. It can be both positive and negative depending on the firm’s strategic position in the market.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/10/18/working-capital-strategy-2/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Stochastic Balance Simulation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 May 2010 20:02:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DFA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dynamic Financial Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IFRS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ledger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trial balance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong.  In addition deterministic models will miss the important dimension of uncertainty - that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they produce.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Case of Enterprise Risk Management</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Apr 2010 09:39:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Budgeting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[COSO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FRM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[S@R]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1637</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Traditionally, when estimating costs, project value, equity value or budgeting, one number is generated – a single point estimate.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
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