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	<title>Strategy @ Risk &#187; Balance sheet and P&amp;L simulation</title>
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	<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
	<description>Understanding risk, creating value</description>
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  <link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com</link>
  <url>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/s-r-3.ico</url>
  <title>Strategy @ Risk</title>
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		<item>
		<title>Stochastic Balance Simulation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/05/24/balance-simulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 May 2010 20:02:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DFA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dynamic Financial Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IFRS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ledger]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trial balance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1705</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We know that forecasts based on average values are on average wrong.  In addition deterministic models will miss the important dimension of uncertainty - that gives both the different risks facing the company and the opportunities they produce.]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>The Case of Enterprise Risk Management</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Apr 2010 09:39:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Budgeting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[COSO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[S@R]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1637</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Traditionally, when estimating costs, project value, equity value or budgeting, one number is generated – a single point estimate.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/19/the-case-of-enterprise-risk-management/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A short presentation of S@R</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/03/a-short-presentation-of-sr/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/04/03/a-short-presentation-of-sr/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 03 Apr 2010 15:45:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate Strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Other topics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Simulation modeling]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1612</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Most companies have some sort of model describing the company’s operations - but...]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Value of Information</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/03/15/the-value-of-information/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/03/15/the-value-of-information/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Mar 2010 18:47:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ERM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Profit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic dominance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1581</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Enterprise risk management only has value to those who know that the future is uncertain]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>WACC, Uncertainty and Infrastructure Regulation</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/02/08/wacc-and-infrastructure-regulation/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2010/02/08/wacc-and-infrastructure-regulation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Feb 2010 16:18:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Costs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Capital cost]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of equity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fan Charts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Infrastructure Regulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Telecom]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WACC]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1525</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Calculating Wacc for a company for a number of years into the future is not a trivial task. Wacc is no longer a single value, but a time series with values varying from year to year. ]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Top Ten Concerns of CFO’s – May 2009</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/06/11/top-ten-concerns-of-cfo%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%93-may-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/06/11/top-ten-concerns-of-cfo%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%93-may-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Jun 2009 20:08:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet and P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corporate risk analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Contingency planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Currency risk]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Interest rate risk]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=1068</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A poll of more than 1200 senior finance executives by CFO Europe together with Tilburg and Duke University ranks the ten top external and internal concerns.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/06/11/top-ten-concerns-of-cfo%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%93-may-2009/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Probability of Bankruptcy</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/30/the-probability-of-bankruptcy/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/30/the-probability-of-bankruptcy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2009 22:31:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability of insolvency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Type I error]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Type II error]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Z-index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Z-score]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=986</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A good metric should have a low probability of rejecting a true hypothesis of bankruptcy (false positive) and a high probability of rejecting a false hypothesis of bankruptcy (false negative).]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/30/the-probability-of-bankruptcy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Predicting Bankruptcy</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/20/predicting-bankruptcy/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/20/predicting-bankruptcy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2009 18:35:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bankruptcy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability of insolvency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Risk modelling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Z-index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Z-score]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=927</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Z-score is not intended to predict when a firm will file a formal declaration of bankruptcy in a district court. It is instead a measure of how closely a firm resembles other firms that have filed for bankruptcy.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/20/predicting-bankruptcy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Risk of Bankruptcy</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/16/the-risk-of-bankruptcy/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/16/the-risk-of-bankruptcy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 Mar 2009 10:32:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[P&L simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bankruptcy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Insolvency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Probability of insolvency]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/?p=890</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There are several models in use for predicting bankruptcy and we have in our balance simulation model implemented two;  Altman’s Z-score model and the risk index Z developed by Hannan and Hanweck.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2009/03/16/the-risk-of-bankruptcy/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The weighted average cost of capital</title>
		<link>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2008/09/08/the-weighted-average-cost-of-capital/</link>
		<comments>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2008/09/08/the-weighted-average-cost-of-capital/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Sep 2008 21:00:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>S@R</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Balance sheet simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Capital cost]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cost of equity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Equity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Monte Carlo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stochastic simulation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WACC]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/test/?p=184</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The weighted cost of capital (WACC) and the return on invested capital (ROIC) are the most important elements in company valuation, and the basis for most strategy and performance evaluation methods.]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://www.strategy-at-risk.com/2008/09/08/the-weighted-average-cost-of-capital/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
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