Archive for S@R
We develop models for simulating economic and financial decisions under uncertainty. Taking advantage of recognized financial and economic theory, we customize simulation models to fit specific industries and needs. Our business idea is to provide decisions support which enables better economic decisions.
Two letters
If you should reconsider, we will be happy to meet with you to explain the nature of our work. To us nothing is better than a demanding customer.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
When in doubt, develop the situation
Planning for an uncertain future is a hard task, but preparing for it by adapting to the uncertainties and risk uncovered is well within our abilities.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Top Ten Concerns of CFO’s – May 2009
A poll of more than 1200 senior finance executives by CFO Europe together with Tilburg and Duke University ranks the ten top external and internal concerns.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
The fallacies of Scenario analysis
Scenario analysis is often used in company valuation – with high, low and most likely scenarios to estimate the value range and expected value – but do they give correct answers?
2009 © | S@R | 3 comments | Continued
Valuation as a strategic tool
Valuation is something usually done only when selling or buying a company. However it is a versatile tool in assessing issues as risk and strategies both in operations and finance.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
The Probability of Bankruptcy
A good metric should have a low probability of rejecting a true hypothesis of bankruptcy (false positive) and a high probability of rejecting a false hypothesis of bankruptcy (false negative).
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Predicting Bankruptcy
The Z-score is not intended to predict when a firm will file a formal declaration of bankruptcy in a district court. It is instead a measure of how closely a firm resembles other firms that have filed for bankruptcy.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
The Risk of Bankruptcy
There are several models in use for predicting bankruptcy and we have in our balance simulation model implemented two; Altman’s Z-score model and the risk index Z developed by Hannan and Hanweck.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
The Risk of Spreadsheet Errors
Audits done shows that nearly 90% of the spreadsheets contained serious errors. Code inspection experiments also shows that even experienced users have a hard time finding errors succeeding in only finding 54% on average.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Airport Simulation
The basic determinant of an airport’s economics is the passenger forecast. It is the basis for estimation of aircraft movements, investment in terminal buildings, traffic charges, tax free sales etc.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Budgeting
Budgeting involves personal judgments about future values of large number of variables like; sales, prices, wages, down- time, error rates, exchange rates etc. – variables that describes the nature of the business.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
Fish farming
When we in 2002 were asked to look into the risk of Cod fish farming, we had to start with the basics; how do cod feed and grow at different locations and what is the mortality at the same locations.
2009 © | S@R | 0 comments | Continued
